al Qaeda and the 2004 election (part 2)
From The Economist Intelligence Unit, January 20, 2004, via e-mail.
"In the event of an actual terrorist attack, the advantage could quickly shift to the Democrats if the administration, or one of its law enforcement agencies, was shown to be negligent. Short of that, an attack--even a devastating one--would probably cause most Americans to rally round the presidency."
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#153 (04-02)
Thursday, January 22
al Qaeda and the 2004 election
At a Sunday luncheon during the AFIO (Association of Former Intelligence Officers) National Convention and Intelligence Symposium, in Tysons Corner, Virginia, (November 1-4, 2003), I asked Ron Kessler, the keynote speaker who was discussing his latest book, “CIA at War,” whether in his discussions with informed sources as he was writing the book he picked up on a fear that al Qaeda might try to launch a major attack on the United States “next year” in an attempt to upset the re-election likelihood of President Bush. I made reference to the 1980 election when the Iranians held American hostages for almost a year and helped Ronald Reagan defeat President Carter, (who seemed to the American people incapable of dealing with the problem and the long-range threat from Iran.)
Kessler said he had not picked up any vibrations to that effect. He added that he personally doubted al Qaeda had the required sophistication to understand our election culture and timetable. I was shocked at his response as it related to al Qaeda followers lacking an understanding of American election processes.
Another attendee in the audience said to me that he also thought it unlikely and even if it did, it would help, not hurt, President Bush. I responded that if it happens again the American people will hold President Bush responsible. “After all he has had three years since 9-11 and if it happens again people are going to want to know what the hell the President has been doing for the past three years.”
This all comes to the forefront in light of a brief article in U.S. News and World Report, January 26,2004, (Washington Whispers, page 6), to wit: “The latest sign that the confident Bush-Cheney team is trying to quash talk of a runaway re-election is the administration’s whisper campaign that another terrorist attack could come before Election Day. Some see a potential attack as a genuine threat to a second term, while other say the talk is a bid to inoculate the public. FBI Director Robert Mueller tells us ‘al Qaeda would like nothing more that to replicate September 11,’ but he predicted no finger pointing. ‘We are in this together.’”
Stay tuned.
If not already there, visit my website.
E-mail your comments
#152 (04-01)
At a Sunday luncheon during the AFIO (Association of Former Intelligence Officers) National Convention and Intelligence Symposium, in Tysons Corner, Virginia, (November 1-4, 2003), I asked Ron Kessler, the keynote speaker who was discussing his latest book, “CIA at War,” whether in his discussions with informed sources as he was writing the book he picked up on a fear that al Qaeda might try to launch a major attack on the United States “next year” in an attempt to upset the re-election likelihood of President Bush. I made reference to the 1980 election when the Iranians held American hostages for almost a year and helped Ronald Reagan defeat President Carter, (who seemed to the American people incapable of dealing with the problem and the long-range threat from Iran.)
Kessler said he had not picked up any vibrations to that effect. He added that he personally doubted al Qaeda had the required sophistication to understand our election culture and timetable. I was shocked at his response as it related to al Qaeda followers lacking an understanding of American election processes.
Another attendee in the audience said to me that he also thought it unlikely and even if it did, it would help, not hurt, President Bush. I responded that if it happens again the American people will hold President Bush responsible. “After all he has had three years since 9-11 and if it happens again people are going to want to know what the hell the President has been doing for the past three years.”
This all comes to the forefront in light of a brief article in U.S. News and World Report, January 26,2004, (Washington Whispers, page 6), to wit: “The latest sign that the confident Bush-Cheney team is trying to quash talk of a runaway re-election is the administration’s whisper campaign that another terrorist attack could come before Election Day. Some see a potential attack as a genuine threat to a second term, while other say the talk is a bid to inoculate the public. FBI Director Robert Mueller tells us ‘al Qaeda would like nothing more that to replicate September 11,’ but he predicted no finger pointing. ‘We are in this together.’”
Stay tuned.
If not already there, visit my website.
E-mail your comments
#152 (04-01)
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